Wholesale Gas Prices UK 2026: What They Mean for Business Energy Bills Quick answer
Wholesale gas prices are the prices energy suppliers pay to buy gas before selling it to homes and businesses. In the UK, wholesale gas is traded through markets such as the National Balancing Point, and prices are influenced by supply, demand, weather, storage levels, global LNG markets, geopolitics, exchange rates and trader expectations.
For businesses, wholesale gas prices matter because they are a major part of a commercial energy bill. Ofgem says wholesale costs can typically make up around 60% of a business gas bill, although the exact percentage varies by supplier, contract and business type.
If wholesale gas prices rise before your renewal, suppliers may price that risk into your next contract. If wholesale prices fall, businesses may be able to secure cheaper rates… but only if they are free to renew, switch or renegotiate.
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Key Takeaways
Wholesale gas prices are the market prices suppliers pay before selling gas to businesses.
In the UK, wholesale market indicators track the prices suppliers typically face when buying gas and electricity.
Wholesale costs are usually one of the largest parts of a business gas bill.
Business energy contracts are not protected in the same way as domestic price-capped tariffs.
A business on a fixed contract may not feel market changes until renewal.
A business on deemed, variable or out-of-contract rates may be exposed more quickly.
Prices are lower than the 2022 crisis peak, but volatility remains a major risk.
Businesses can reduce exposure by comparing fixed contracts, improving efficiency and avoiding rollover or deemed rates.
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Authored by: Ally Cox (Business Technology & B2B Services Specialist 10+ Years’ Experience)
Reviewed by: James Ward (Telecoms Specialist, 12+ Years Experience)
Last Updated: June 2026
Contents
What Influences Wholesale Gas Prices?
Who Decides Wholesale Gas Prices?
How Do Wholesale Gas Prices Impact Businesses?
Key Trends in UK Wholesale Gas Prices
What Are Wholesale Gas Prices? Wholesale gas prices are the market price suppliers pay for natural gas before it is sold to consumers – suppliers purchase gas in advance through trading markets and then offer businesses contracts based on those prices. These wholesale costs form the largest portion of a commercial energy bill, alongside:
Network and distribution charges
Environmental levies
Supplier operating costs
VAT
and because wholesale markets fluctuate daily, energy suppliers constantly adjust business tariffs to reflect market conditions.
A business gas bill usually includes:
Bill component What it means
Wholesale gas cost
The cost of buying gas on wholesale markets
Network costs
Charges for transporting gas through the system
Supplier margin
Supplier operating costs and profit
Metering and admin
Meter operation, billing and account management
Environmental and policy costs
Government or market scheme-related costs
VAT
Usually 20% for most businesses, with exceptions
Climate Change Levy
Applies to many business energy users unless exempt or reduced
How wholesale gas prices affect business energy bills There are a few key factors influence wholesale gas prices, let’s explore below:
Supply and demand
The availability of natural gas is influenced by production levels, import capacity, and storage facilities. Any disruptions in supply, such as pipeline maintenance or geopolitical tensions can lead to price increases. Seasonal variations, such as higher demand in winter for heating, can drive prices up.
Weather conditions
Extreme weather, such as cold winters or hot summers, can lead to increased usage of heating or cooling, and in the same way, natural disasters can disrupt gas production and supply chains, leading to price volatility.
Global market trends
International trade and the global energy market influence local prices. For example, if Europe faces a gas shortage, prices in the UK will usually subsequenty rise due to increased competition for limited resources.
Exchange rates can also affect the cost of imported gas, influencing wholesale prices.
Political/economic events
Political instability in major gas-producing regions can cause supply concerns, leading to higher prices.
Also, economic sanctions on countries like Russia can disrupt global supply chains and impact prices.
Exchange rates
Variations in currency exchange rates can affect the cost of imported gas.
Wholesale prices do not always feed into your bill immediately, the impact depends on your contract.
Business contract type
How wholesale prices affect you
Fixed-rate contract
You are usually protected until the contract ends
Variable contract
Rates may change as market conditions change
Deemed rate
Often expensive and exposed to supplier pricing
Out-of-contract rate
Flexible procurement contract
Prices may track wholesale markets more directly
Renewal offer
Suppliers price in current and expected future market costs
Check business gas renewal prices
Wholesale gas prices vs business gas rates
Term Meaning Why it matters
Wholesale gas price
Market cost of gas before retail supply
Drives supplier costs
Business gas unit rate
Price your business pays per kWh
Affects usage cost
Standing charge
Daily fixed charge
Paid regardless of usage
Fixed contract
Agreed rate for a set period
Gives budget certainty
Variable tariff
Price can move
More exposed to market changes
Deemed rate
Default rate if no agreed contract
Often expensive
Out-of-contract rate
Rate after a contract ends without renewal
Usually poor value
Trends in UK Wholesale Gas Prices
Period Market picture Main drivers
Before 2021
Lower and more stable prices
More predictable supply and demand
2021–2022
Severe price shock
Post-pandemic demand, supplier failures, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
2023
Prices eased from crisis highs
More LNG supply, reduced demand, storage rebuilding
2024–2025
Lower than peak but still volatile
Weather, storage, LNG competition, geopolitical risk
2026
Volatility remains
Global supply concerns, Middle East risk, storage and forward-market uncertainty
The House of Commons Library notes that April–June 2026 typical domestic energy costs were well below the 2022–23 peak, but still around 35% higher than winter 2021/22, and forecasts pointed to further increases in Q3 and Q4 2026.
Why wholesale gas prices matter more for businesses Business energy customers are often more exposed than households because domestic customers have a price cap, while business energy contracts are usually arranged commercially. Cornwall Insight warned in 2026 that businesses have no equivalent “safety net” when wholesale markets spike, and that fixed offers can become more difficult when suppliers price in uncertainty.
This matters most for businesses that:
use a lot of gas
are near renewal
are out of contract
are on deemed rates
operate in hospitality, manufacturing, care, retail, leisure or food production
have poor energy efficiency
have multiple sites
cannot easily pass higher costs to customers
Which businesses are most exposed?
Business type
Restaurants and pubs
Heating, hot water and cooking costs
Hotels and leisure
Heating, laundry, kitchens and guest comfort
Manufacturers
Process heat and energy-intensive operations
Food production
Heating, cooking, refrigeration and processing
Care homes
High heating and hot water demand
Warehouses
Commercial landlords
Communal heating and multi-tenant energy costs
Schools and charities
Budget pressure and limited flexibility
Farms and rural businesses
Heating, drying and energy-intensive equipment
Who Decides Wholesale Gas Prices? Wholesale gas prices are determined by market forces on various trading hubs around the world. Key players include:
Energy Eechanges
Platforms like the National Balancing Point (NBP) in the UK and the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands are major trading hubs where gas prices are set based on trading activities.
Suppliers/traders
Energy companies and traders negotiate contracts and make trades based on current and projected supply and demand, influencing prices.
Regulatory bodies
While market-driven, regulatory bodies like Ofgem in the UK oversee the market to ensure fair practices and prevent market manipulation.
How Do Wholesale Gas Prices Impact Businesses? Wholesale gas prices significantly affect business as higher wholesale gas prices directly translate to increased energy bills for businesses, which naturally therefore affect overall operating costs.
Energy-intensive industries, such as manufacturing and chemicals, are particularly vulnerable to these price fluctuations.
Because of this, businesses may also need to adjust the pricing of their products or services to cover higher energy costs, which can affect competitiveness and profitability.
Should businesses fix gas prices in 2026? There is no one-size-fits-all answer, but a fixed business gas contract can provide budget certainty, but it can also lock you into higher prices if the market falls.
Fixed contract may suit you if…
Flexible/shorter options could suit you if…
You need budget certainty
You can tolerate price risk
Your renewal is soon
You want to wait for market movement
Your margins are tight
You have energy procurement support
Your energy use is high
You understand wholesale market exposure
You want to avoid deemed rates
You are actively monitoring rates
How businesses can reduce wholesale gas price risk
Action Why it helps
Compare suppliers before renewal
Avoids accepting poor renewal rates
Avoid deemed and out-of-contract rates
These are often more expensive
Consider fixed contracts
Review contract end dates
Prevents missed renewal windows
Improve energy efficiency
Reduces exposure to gas usage
Monitor usage
Upgrade heating controls
Reduces unnecessary consumption
Insulate premises
Consider low-carbon heating
Use an energy broker carefully
May help compare contracts, but check commission and LOA terms
What to check before signing a business gas contract Before choosing a new gas contract, check:
unit rate per kWh
standing charge
contract length
renewal date
termination window
deemed/out-of-contract rates
VAT and Climate Change Levy
broker commission
whether rates are fixed or variable
estimated annual consumption
meter details and MPRN
supplier credit requirements
direct debit assumptions
pass-through charges
green gas or renewable options
Why compare business gas quotes? Wholesale gas prices affect suppliers, but your actual business bill depends on your contract – two suppliers may price the same business very differently based on usage, risk, postcode, meter type and contract length.
Comparing quotes can help you:
avoid out-of-contract rates
see whether fixed rates are competitive
compare standing charges and unit rates
benchmark supplier margins
review contract length options
understand renewal pricing
reduce exposure to market volatility
Compare business gas prices
Why compare with Compare Your Business Costs? Compare Your Business Costs helps UK businesses compare energy quotes based on usage, meter details, contract end date and business type.
You can compare:
business gas quotes
business electricity quotes
fixed business energy contracts
variable business tariffs
renewal offers
multi-site energy contracts
microbusiness energy prices
commercial gas tariffs
green business energy options
energy broker services
There is no obligation to switch, and comparing quotes can help you avoid paying more than necessary when wholesale markets move.
Get free business gas quotes
Verdict: what do wholesale gas prices mean for UK businesses? Wholesale gas prices are one of the biggest drivers of business gas bills, but they are not the only factor. Your final price also depends on your supplier, contract type, standing charge, usage, meter, renewal timing and risk profile.
In 2026, wholesale gas prices are well below the 2022 crisis peak, but the market is still exposed to geopolitical shocks, storage concerns, weather events and global LNG demand.
Final recommendation:
FAQs: wholesale gas prices UK What are wholesale gas prices?
Wholesale gas prices are the prices suppliers pay to buy gas on energy markets before selling it to homes and businesses.
Who sets wholesale gas prices in the UK?
Wholesale gas prices are set by market trading, not directly by Ofgem. They are influenced by supply, demand, weather, storage, LNG markets, geopolitics and exchange rates.
What is the National Balancing Point?
The National Balancing Point, or NBP, is the UK’s virtual gas trading hub. It is used as a key reference point for UK wholesale gas trading.
Do wholesale gas prices affect business energy bills?
Yes. Wholesale costs are a major part of business gas bills. Ofgem says wholesale costs can typically make up around 60% of a business gas bill, though the exact share varies.
Why did UK gas prices rise so much in 2022?
Prices rose sharply because of global supply pressure, post-pandemic demand and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which disrupted European gas markets.
Are wholesale gas prices falling in 2026?
Wholesale gas prices are below the 2022 crisis peak, but the market remains volatile. Some 2026 forecasts and market updates have pointed to renewed upward pressure linked to geopolitical risk and wholesale market uncertainty.
Do falling wholesale gas prices automatically lower my business bill?
No. If you are on a fixed contract, your rate usually stays the same until renewal. Falling wholesale prices may help when you compare new contracts, but they may not reduce your current bill immediately.
Should my business choose a fixed gas contract?
A fixed contract can help with budget certainty, especially if your renewal is soon or your margins are tight. However, it can also lock you in if prices fall. Compare fixed and flexible quotes before deciding.
How can businesses reduce gas costs?
Businesses can reduce gas costs by comparing suppliers before renewal, avoiding deemed rates, improving energy efficiency, monitoring usage, upgrading heating controls and reviewing contract terms.
What is the difference between wholesale and retail gas prices?
Wholesale gas prices are what suppliers pay in the market. Retail or business gas prices are what customers pay after supplier costs, network charges, policy costs, VAT, CCL and margins are added.
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Hi, I’m Ally Cox , a senior copywriter and blogger at CompareYourBusinessCosts.co.uk, the UK’s trusted platform for comparing business services.over a decade of experience in the B2B sector, I specialise in simplifying complex topics like leased lines, VoIP, business energy, HR and payroll solutions, accounting software, and EPOS systems .HR, copywriting, and business operations- from clocking-in systems to card machines and office technology .informed, confident decisions when choosing products and services that improve efficiency and save money.
